I believe the recent Bitcoin market is not characterized by simple up-and-down trends, but is instead in a phase where “short-term instability + expectations for a long-term rise” coexist.
With variables such as interest rates and geopolitical risks clashing with institutional capital inflows, it appears difficult to clearly determine a direction; it seems this is a position where caution is needed rather than aggression.
Currently, Bitcoin is generally moving below the downtrend line, and while there are intermittent rebounds, the momentum is not strong.
I will specifically mention the important points on the chart.
- Maintaining a downtrend (trend is still weak)
- Constructing a short-term rebound
- Moving average line resistance exists
Although a rebound is occurring, the current trend seems insufficient to be considered a trend reversal.
There are only two prices that must be checked in this section.
For now, it’s around $63,000 and it’s acting as a major support line If you leave this price range, I think there is a high possibility of accelerating the decline.
I think market sentiment can weaken sharply when you leave that price range.
And the next important thing to look at is $73,000 That price band is forming a strong resistance band on the chart When it breaks through that price range, it can be seen as a trend change signal in the short term
From $73,000 and above, I think it’s a segment where Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trend
In the end, I think the market right now is 63K to 73K box
Next is a scenario-specific response strategy
In this section, rather than predicting the direction
I think the response is much more important
As for the upward scenario, I think we’ll have to watch them support after they break through 73K You have to check if it falls off right after you touch it or if it’s holding out
If you see him supporting after breaking through, I think it would be better to buy it after seeing it as a pressed neck
Next, it’s a falling scenario. If you leave 63K and fall, you can think of it as falling
As a response strategy, it is right to take a short position or hold the purchase for now And we have to wait and see for further declines
And thirdly, there’s a neutral strategy
It’s trying to buy in small installments many times We need to divide the weight
We need to get rid of our emotions and approach the strategic battle thoroughly.
What should be considered important from the current investment perspective
Right now, it’s unstable in the short term as a box, but in the long run, it still seems to be a structure where upward expectations are alive
You’ll need to take enough time to get a profit. And it’s also very helpful to keep checking whether there are good news in the market and understand the atmosphere.
Risk management is the lifeblood of the coin market because it is very volatile You’ll have to get used to the waiting trade to survive